As the end of the year approaches, a budgeting crisis threatens to shut down the federal government just before the Christmas holiday. Under pressure from Donald Trump and Elon Musk, who has emerged as a main adviser to the president-elect, Republicans in Congress are rejecting a budget negotiated by the Republican speaker of the House to keep the government running. With time running short to come up with a new bill, a government shutdown may hit this weekend.

Government funding bill killed by opposition from Musk, Trump and Vance

Speaker of the House Mike Johnson, R-LA., had proposed a three-month continuing resolution, or CR, that would have funded the government until mid-March. The bill included measures that were popular with some Republicans, such as support for farmers and relief funds for areas of the country — many of them in red states — hit by natural disasters this year, and it included spending measures that Democrats supported as well. The CR was meant as a temporary fix to prevent a government shutdown, which is set to happen this weekend if a new budget measure is not passed.

But the bipartisan deal negotiated by Johnson fell apart this week when members and allies of the incoming administration publicly opposed it. Elon Musk, the world’s richest person, who has become one of Trump’s key advisers, railed against the deal in dozens of tweets on his social media platform X, even calling the CR “criminal.”

Musk also threatened the job security of Congressional Republicans, warning in a post on X that “any member of the House or Senate who votes for this outrageous spending bill deserves to be voted out in 2 years!”

The president-elect and Vice President-elect JD Vance took up Musk’s opposition, calling on Republicans to reject the current CR. In a post on Trump’s Truth Social platform, they called for Congress to instead “pass a streamlined spending bill that doesn’t give Chuck Schumer and the Democrats everything they want.” Trump and Vance are also calling for an increase in the debt ceiling, the amount of money that the federal government can borrow. Trump wants this increase — something that is controversial for Republicans who complain about government spending — to happen now during President Joe Biden’s term rather than under the incoming Trump administration. “Increasing the debt ceiling is not great but we’d rather do it on Biden’s watch,” the incoming administration said.

What happens next and next year?

This opposition was enough to kill the CR, with Republicans rejecting Johnson’s plan on Wednesday. Currently, Johnson has less than two days to renegotiate a bill that would pass both the Republican-controlled House and the Democrat-controlled Senate. Options include attempting to pass a “clean” bill that does not contain provisions like disaster relief spending, or attempting to get the CR he has already negotiated through Congress despite the vocal disapproval of the incoming administration.

If Johnson is unable to strike a new deal, federal government services across the country will shut down starting Saturday. Nearly 4 million federal employees, including both civilian workers and military personnel, will stop receiving paychecks. Many others who indirectly rely on the federal government, such as contract workers, will also lose work or pay, with the situation getting worse the longer the government remains closed. This outcome is becoming increasingly likely as Republicans appeared deadlocked in their negotiations. And Musk seems to be pushing for this outcome, tweeting “No bills should be passed Congress until Jan 20, when @realDonaldTrump takes office.”

In the long run, this fiasco has lessened the chance that Johnson will be able to continue his role as Speaker when the new Congress takes office in January. One Republican has even suggested that Musk be named Speaker, pointing out that the rules do not require that position to go to a member of Congress.

Even if other Republicans don’t take up this unlikely scenario, Musk is poised to be a powerful influence in the Trump administration. He is already co-leading the nongovernmental Department of Government Efficiency, which has been given the job of auditing federal spending and suggesting massive cuts to the budget. And his role in killing the continuing resolution suggests that Trump will pay close attention to the advice of Musk; some Democrats have even started to mockingly refer to “President Musk” as being in charge of the Republican Party.

It’s becoming clear that next year, Republicans are poised to make big policy changes and enact deep cuts to government spending, which could upend a number of important programs. And the current budget crisis shows that the incoming administration isn’t waiting to take office to wield its influence, even if everyone from government employees to disaster victims have to pay the price for their demands.

Donald trumpElon Muskgovernment shutdown