How Much To Expect For Your IRS Refund In 2026, And Why They're Projecting A Large Payment

The IRS is telling taxpayers to expect a large refund at the beginning of 2026. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent revealed the plans when he appeared on the All-In Podcast on Tuesday, Newsweek reported.

What are financial experts saying about the large refund taxpayers may get in 2026?

Bessent, who is also the IRS acting commissioner, said the refund is a result of Donald Trump’s One Big Beautiful Act. He also said families could get “$1,000, $2,000 refunds” if they file early in 2026.

“The bill was passed in July. Working Americans didn’t change their withholding, so they’re going to be getting very large refunds in the first quarter,” Bessent told NBC10 Philadelphia, per Newsweek. “I think we’re going to see $100-$150 billion of refunds, which could be between $1,000, $2,000 per household. Then they’ll change their withholding, and they’ll get a real increase in their wages.”

Economist Don Schneider is also predicting a large tax refund for Americans in 2026.

“When people go to file, I think they’ll be surprised by really, really large refunds,” Schneider said on a recent Podcast, per Newsweek. “In a typical year, we might have about $270 billion in individual income tax refunds, and that could be as high as that plus another $90 billion. So it could be one of the largest refund seasons ever.”

Schneider also said the refunds will be “really concentrated in kind of the middle- and middle-upper income part of the income distribution.”

What are critics saying about Donald Trump’s One Big Beautiful Bill?

While Trump’s supporters are praising him for his One Big Beautiful Bill, critics say the legislation could lead to a larger deficit for the country.

Opponents of the bill also say the legislation largely benefits high-income people and corporations. According to Newsweek, data from the Congressional Budget Office reveal that families in the top 10 percent will get a $12,000 increase on average in the next eight years. Meanwhile, those in the bottom 10% could lose $1,600 per year.

Trump’s legislation largely cuts Medicaid and food assistance programs.